Four years after U.S. voters turned out for a presidential election in numbers not seen in more than a century, pollsters now expect record numbers of disillusioned young voters of all political persuasions and from all ethnic groups to express themselves by staying home.
Political malaise is especially evident among young voters disenchanted by the post-pandemic economy and the advanced age and politics of incumbent President Joe Biden, 81, and former president and Republican front-runner Donald Trump, 77.
In my own many conversations with millennial and Gen Z voters here in San Antonio, and in recent visits to Austin, the Texas-Mexico border, and New York City, I found discontent bordering on anger over the state of national affairs as candidates head into the 2024 caucus and primary season that starts in Iowa and New Hampshire in January, comes to Texas in March, and concludes in June.
Dozens of young people I have spoken with feel neither candidate embraces their progressive positions on the economy, labor unions, climate change, gun control and now, Middle East violence. Israel, deeply wounded by Hamas attacks on its territory on Oct. 7 that included more than 1,200 brutal killings and the taking of more than 240 hostages, many brutalized, has now killed more than 15,000 Palestinians in two months of bombings and ground attacks in the Gaza strip. Israeli military officials say they have killed more than 5,000 militants, yet credible eyewitness accounts tally the number of dead Palestinian women, children and the elderly in the thousands.
Now, a respected national poll has codified my own interviews and anecdotal findings.
A nationwide poll of more than 2,000 people aged 18 to 29 conducted between late October and early November this year that was released Thursday by the Institute of Politics at Harvard’s Kennedy School concluded that young people, including many who voted in the 2020 presidential elections that drew the highest percentage of registered voters since the 1900 presidential election, do not intend to vote in November 2024.
Respondents showed little support for Biden, whose approval rating stood at a lowly 35% in the poll, and even less enthusiasm for Trump, who faces 91 criminal indictments in Washington, DC; Georgia; and Florida for inciting insurrection at the Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021; for leading a national campaign of falsehoods to overturn the legitimate election of Biden; and for his unauthorized transfer of highly classified documents as he departed the White House to his Mar-a-Lago residence, some of which he continued to withhold even as federal investigators repeatedly demanded their return.
“When the field expands, potential independent candidates Robert F. Kennedy Jr., [West Virginia Sen.] Joe Manchin and Cornel West take more support from potential Biden voters than Trump voters,” the survey found.
But does that even matter if the young voters polled by Harvard fail to show up for the election?
All of the young professionals I spoke with voted for Biden in 2020 and expressed contempt for Trump, and many reminded me they supported Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders in his primary campaign in 2016 and still felt he was cheated by the Democratic National Committee, whose officials secretly derided his campaign and feared his progressive policies, according to 20,000 illegally hacked emails published by WikiLeaks. The discontent that has been building since Hillary Clinton was upset by Trump in 2016 now appears to be boiling over.
I pointed out in multiple conversations that felt more like debates that a failure by young people to vote was a de facto vote for Trump, and ultimately, the implicit threat he will further undermine democracy if returned to power. That provoked strong responses from young voters who said they are tired of not being listened to and feeling marginalized in a world and economy controlled by increasingly older Americans clinging to power.
A Washington Post article on the poll notes that while fewer young Democrats and Republicans contacted by Harvard say they will vote in 2024, the numbers are even lower for Blacks, Latinos and women who voted in 2020.
Turnout and outcomes are related. Biden was elected after 66.9% of eligible voters went to the polls in 2020, while Trump was elected when only 59% voted in 2016. Will 2024 see an even lower turnout? Both political parties need to convince young voters that staking their claim in national affairs begins with participation, and that means voting, even if they have to hold their noses while doing so.
This column has been updated to correct the date of the attack on the U.S. Capitol.
