Out of 80 nationally known economics experts, a St. Mary’s University professor came closest to predicting how the 2023 economy would look.
The Wall Street Journal named Belinda Román, associate professor of economics at St. Mary’s University, the most accurate economic forecaster of 2023.
Román accomplished that feat by thinking less about numbers and more about human behavior, she said on the latest episode of the bigcitysmalltown podcast with host Robert Rivard.
“I kind of went back to basics to think about what is the normal trajectory of our economy and what are people saying, what’s happening on the ground,” she said.
“And that kind of helped me adjust and I think that’s why I was slightly more accurate than some of the other economists. I kind of took that into account, got that human element back into it.”
Román discussed the wide range of topics she monitors to develop her economic forecasts, including inflation, immigration policy and transportation.
The El Paso native’s route to San Antonio and her first teaching position here took her to places like Canada, England and Bolivia, along with Washington, D.C., and Fort Worth before landing at Palo Alto College.
Today, she teaches economics courses at St. Mary’s and serves as secretary-treasurer of the San Antonio Business and Economics Society. She also has conducted impact studies for the SABÉR Research Institute think tank at St. Mary’s.
In that role, she spends a lot of time thinking about the “extraordinary challenges” facing San Antonio and persistent economic inequities as the city grows. Román said it’s a big problem and the solutions need to come faster.
“It’s a question of how we accelerate the process and make sure that they move through the bureaucracies faster,” she said.
In her conversation with Rivard, Román also talked about the value of an Alamo Colleges education and what a private university like St. Mary’s can provide despite rising tuition costs and stagnant wage growth.
The discussion quickly turned to the current state of the economy and while there’s no avoiding cost increases, and thus inflation, Roman remains something of an optimist.
“Not 100% everything’s hunky dory and, you know, sunshine and happy things,” Román said. “I’m not a pessimist, either, because clearly there’s some resilience.” She noted that stock markets are only one part of the U.S. economy — “and a very specific part because people who play the stock market, they gamble. They do things differently.”
San Antonio is different as well, she said, and shouldn’t try to follow in Austin’s footsteps.
“I’ve always thought that that would be better for us if we just focused south because the opportunities coming out of the south … they’re growing — there’s some interesting things happening in countries beyond Mexico,” she said. “And if we can get past some of the negative press, I think we’ll see that we have a lot of business opportunities down there and global opportunities.”
Listen to episode 59 of bigcitysmalltown to hear what Román is thinking, learn what goes into her economic forecasting and find out what’s ahead for San Antonio.
